Day 5 - it's a bust!

08 June 2010

Well, we've had 3 amazing chase days till now, seems only fair that we'd have a "bust". We had two options this morning, we could either head 500 miles east to Kansas and hit what looked like a big setup for nasty storms, or take a chance driving south through the more beautiful landscapes of Colorado, on a slightly more tenuous chase prospect.We chose the Colorado option, starting off with a 100 mile jaunt down to a staging post where we could re-assess. Had some grub there, reviewed the models, and they tempted us further south. Got another 120 miles further south and re-reviewed. Not much happening and it was an awkward choice as the weather was tempting us south again, but the next day's outlook would likely take us back up to the north east. But we'd come this far, what's another 70 miles when there appeared to be some storms rising at the New Mexico border...So there we headed. We got there to see some fairly good, if a little distant, cumulonimbus. One passed over us as it dissipated, and rained a bit. And we saw a fork of lightning. Now we're headed back 280 miles to the north east to return to the gem of a motel we found last night, and set ourselves up for tomorrow's chases. Fingers crossed they aren't in the deep south east again!No worries though, we knew this was part of the game, and we've got a long drive to analyse what we got wrong. According to a leading severe weather forecaster, chasers are some of the best forecasters because they spend so much time reviewing their mistakes, because the cost of those mistakes are so high. Most other schools of forecasting, he argues, just move onto the next forecast, without looking back.The most galling thing, such as there is one, is that our first staging post, given more time, would have been the best place to wait today, as a good storm came down from Denver later on. Again, all part of the learning!Outlook for tomorrow looks ok, but there's some really interesting weather due at the end of the week...watch this space...

SPC Day 1 Weather Outlook as at 06:00UTC (01:00 Central Time the night before)

SPC 01:00UTC day 1 forecast for Tue June 2010

SPC Day 1 Weather Reports for the day.

SPC storm reports for Tue June 2010

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