Stanley Storm

14 June 2018

Today’s risk had been one of the few this year to be called by the SPC forecasters from more than 3 days out. With the jetstream finally making a show into the CONUS along with an unusually strong northward push of moisture it looked set to be an interesting day. One issue, however, was how many of the storms would fire in North Dakota vs Canada. It seemed likely to be both, but if it was only Canada then it was going to be a long journey to be stuck on the wrong side arbitrary political boundaries. The car rental and internet options could be a bit complicated, but given that muggins here is getting by on an emergency passport after laundrygate, crossing the border wasn’t an option.

We had spent the last day chilling and waiting for some possible storms in the Nebraska panhandle. When they didn’t appear we made our way up to Rapid City for the night, leaving ourselves a fairly big journey to the top of North Dakota. In general our timings were OK though and by the time we arrived in our target area we were still waiting for an obvious target to emerge. Surely enough there were storms on the border (literally so, with international supercells) but we were waiting for something a little further south.

It wasn’t long before a storm popped on our heads and we were soon vying for position on some good views of it as it erupted.

Stanley Early

For a while it looked like it was going to be quite an event, however after exhibiting some classic features including a robust wall cloud, it began to lose structure. It had another go about 10 minutes later, even showing some good rotation in its base for a brief time, but then it lost it again.

Unfortunately our storm, like most deep convection in the area was being undercut by cooler air as it got started so none of the storms were really taking hold. They gave us some nice structure while they tried though.

Tractor

A little later on when the low level jet kicked in, bringing stronger, warmer, surface winds into the area the storms got a bit more robust and we enjoyed some decent lightning in the last of the light.

Lake And Storm

Tree Storm

Bo And Storm

Certainly a day that could have been bigger, given how robust the atmospheric setup was, but in 2018 terms it was a cracking effort.

Sunset

SPC Day 1 Weather Outlook as at 06:00UTC (01:00 Central Time the night before)

SPC 01:00UTC day 1 forecast for Thu June 2018

SPC Day 1 Weather Reports for the day.

SPC storm reports for Thu June 2018

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