A Nebraska Failure

06 June 2015

After looking at the models today there were 2 options. We could head 6 hours east from Sterling, Colorado to eastern Nebraska for what was gearing up to be a big day of storms. The atmosphere was primed in this region with huge amounts of CAPE and clusters of supercell storms forecast. Or we could remain where we were in Colorado where there was more of a marginal set-up of some upslope flow.

When there is such a vast difference in forecast storm severity with the better option looking further away, sometimes you feel you need to make that effort and go for the potentially more severe risk. You start to think maybe staying put would be a bit too lazy, especially because the models weren't looking that good for Colorado - it was a seemingly very marginal marginal.

So we headed to eastern Nebraska. Then SPC upgraded the area we were heading into up from a 5% to a 10% tornado risk. Oh no, the curse of the 10%! Usually when this happens it kills all chance of anything happening.

Some storms had started to fire a bit further south than where we were planning to go to and they weren't quite in the 10% so we gave them a go but they fizzled out as they couldn't break through the capping inversion - either the mid-levels were too warm / moist and this was reducing the instability in the atmosphere. However, the 10% area was not looking great either. Some storms went up, but too many did at once and this caused all sorts of negative storm interactions with all of them merging into a big semi-severe mess. Nothing visually worth making the effort for. Even so, we continued heading in their direction hoping for something new to pop up between us and them. Nothing really did. This was the best we got.

 Nebraska End Of Line Storm

In Colorado, they had a beautiful slow-moving supercell mothership. Gggrrrrrrrrrr....!

 

SPC Day 1 Weather Outlook as at 06:00UTC (01:00 Central Time the night before)

SPC 01:00UTC day 1 forecast for Sat June 2015

SPC Day 1 Weather Reports for the day.

SPC storm reports for Sat June 2015

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